Nico  Keilman
Professor

	Postal address:	Department of Economics University of Oslo P.O. Box 1095, Blindern NO-0317 Oslo, Norway
	Visiting address:	Eilert Sundt building (Reception: Room 1240) Moltke Moes vei 31 NO-0851 Oslo, Norway
	Room:	1021
	Phone:	+47 22855128, + 47 22855127 (reception)
	Fax:	+47 22855035
	Email:	n.w.keilman@econ.uio.no
	Homepage:	http://folk.uio.no/keilman

Background

M.Sc. in Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands, 1977. Ph.D. in demography, University of Utrecht, the Netherlands, 1990.

Research officer, Department of Population Statistics, Statistics Netherlands (1977-1981); research associate, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (1982-1990); senior research associate, Statistics Norway (1990-1998).

Teaching and tutoring

Demographic methods, statistics

Autumn 09: ECON1710 - Demografi - grunnemne , ECON1730 - Befolkning og velferd and ECON4130 - Statistics 2

Special fields

Population forecasting, modelling marriage and household dynamics, mathematical demography.

Ongoing and planned research projects at Department of Economics

Integrated modelling of European migration, a project jointly with researchers from Statistical Sciences Research Institute, University of Southampton, and the Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute (project proposal accepted, start autumn 2009)

Ageing Households and the Nordic Welfare Model, a project jointly with researchers from The Research Institution of the Finnish Economy (ETLA) and the Centre for Economic and Business Research, Copenhagen Business School (start June 2009)

Selected publications

• Nico Keilman and Solveig Christiansen, "Norwegian elderly less likely to live alone in the future". Forthcoming in European Journal of Population,here
• Juha Alho and Nico Keilman, "On future household structure". Forthcoming in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, here
• Nico Keilman, "Concern in the European Union about Low Birth Rates," European View 2008 here
• Nico Keilman, "European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate during the past 25 years," Population and Development Review, 2008, 34(1), here
• Maarten Alders, Nico Keilman and Harri Cruijsen, "Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries," European Journal of Population, 2007, 23:33-69, here
• Juha Alho, Maarten Alders, Harri Cruijsen, Nico Keilman, Timo Nikander and Dinh Quang Pham, "New forecast: Population decline postponed in Europe," Statistical Journal of the United Nations ECE12, 2006, 23:1-10, here
• Nico Keilman, "Demographic Translation: From Period to Cohort Perspective and Back," Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, A Treatise in Population Studies Volume 1, Burlington MA: Academic Press, 2006, 213-223.
• Nico Keilman,"The Impact of Demographic Uncertainty on Liabilities for Public Old Age Pensions in Norway,"New Zealand Population Review 31(1), 2005, 35-50, here
• Juha Alho, Maarten Alders, Harri Cruijsen, Nico Keilman, Timo Nikander and Dinh Quang Pham, "Population decline postponed in Europe," Statistical Magazine, 2005, here
• Nico Keilman and Dinh Quang Pham, "Time series based errors and empirical errors in fertility forecasts in the Nordic countries," International Statistical Review 72(1), 2004, 5-18, summary here
• Nico Keilman, "Biodiversity: The threat of small households," Nature 421, 30 January 2003, 489-490, here
• Nico Keilman, Dinh Quang Pham and Arve Hetland, "Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway," Demographic Research 6-15 May 2002, 409-454, here
• Nico Keilman, "TFR predictions and Brownian motion theory," Yearbook of Population Research in Finland 38, 2002, 209-221, here
• Nico Keilman, "Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95," Population Studies 55(2), 2001, 149-164, here
• Nico Keilman, "Uncertain population forecasts," Nature 412, 6846, 2001, 490-491, here
• Nico Keilman and Dinh Quang Pham, "Predictive intervals for age-specific fertility," European Journal of Population 16(1), 2000, 41-66, here
• Nico Keilman, "How accurate are the United Nations' world population projections?," Population and Development Review supplement to Volume 24, 1998, 15-41, here

Working papers

• Nico Keilman, "Age structural transitions in historical perspective: What can we learn from the past?" [submitted]
• Nico Keilman and Dinh Quang Pham, "Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area," Oslo: Statistics Norway, 2004, here
• Nico Keilman, "Demographic implications of low fertility for family structures in Europe," Strasbourg: Council of Europe, 2003, here
• Nico Keilman, "Children and time: The Norwegian model," NIDI Hofstee Lectures Series nr. 6, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, 2001.

Bøker

• N. Keilman, J. Lyngstad, H. Bojer, and I. Thomsen (eds.) Poverty and Economic Inequality in Industrialized Western Societies. Oslo: Scandinavian University Press, 1998, 334 pp.
• J.-P. Gonnot, N. Keilman and C. Prinz, Social Security, Household and Family Dynamics in Ageing Societies. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1995, 235 pp.
• N. Keilman, Uncertainty in National Population Forecasting: Issues, Backgrounds, Analyses, Recommendations. Amsterdam and Rockland, MA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers, 1990, 211 pp.
• N. Keilman, A. Kuijsten, and A. Vossen (eds.), Modelling Household Formation and Dissolution. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1988, 298 pp.

Publications in Bibsys

Publications in FRIDA

Other activities:
* editor, Demographic Research here
* member, editorial board European Studies of Population
* member, International Editorial Committee, Population, Paris
* member, Scientific Advisory Council Netherlands Demographic Institute, The Hague